Voters in the U.S. will head to the polls on 5 November to pick their next president. Initially, this election was a rematch of 2020 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but things changed in July when President Biden dropped out and supported Vice-President Kamala Harris.
The big question is whether Trump will win another term orHarris will become the first female president.
According to polls, before Biden left the race, Trump was consistently ahead. Even though Harris wasn’t expected to perform much better, the polls became closer once she began campaigning.
She now holds a slight lead over Trump, staying steady at about 47% in national polls since her big speech at the Democratic convention. Trump’s numbers remain around 44%, without any major increase after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. backed him in August, according to BBC.
However, national polls alone can’t predict the election’s outcome because the U.S. uses the electoral college system, where winning votes in specific states matters more than the total number of votes.
Most states consistently vote for the same party, so the election will likely be decided in a few battleground states.
Right now, polls in these battleground states are very close. In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—key states that Trump won in 2016 but Biden flipped in 2020—Harris needs to win to have a good chance at the presidency. Polls in these states show both candidates within just one percentage point of each other, making it tough to tell who’s really in the lead.
The BBC explains that these poll averages are compiled by the polling analysis website 538, which collects data from various polls and only includes those from reliable sources.
Even though polls are helpful, they aren’t always perfect, as they underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies are working to improve their accuracy, but it’s hard to predict exactly who will show up to vote on election day.
In short, as of now, Harris has a slight edge, but it’s still a close race, and the outcome will depend on key battleground states.
BBC adds that with such tight numbers, it’s anyone’s guess who will come out on top.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo