Voters in the U.S. are set to choose their next president on November 5. Originally, the election was expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election, but things changed in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
Now, the big question is whether America will get its first woman president or if Donald Trump will return for a second term .
Who’s Leading in the Polls?
Currently, Harris is ahead of Trump in national polls, although her lead is quite small. Before Biden’s exit, polls showed him trailing Trump, but as Harris began campaigning, she managed to gain a slight advantage. For instance, after a debate on September 10, many viewers felt that Harris performed better, leading to a small increase in her polling average from 2.5 percentage points to 2.9 .
Polls are important for gauging how popular each candidate is, but they aren’t always reliable predictors of election outcomes.
The U.S. uses an electoral college system, meaning that each state gets a certain number of votes based on its population, and candidates need 270 electoral votes to win.
Most states tend to vote for the same party, so the key battleground states are crucial for determining who will be president .
What’s Happening in Battleground States?
In the key battleground states, polls show a very tight race between Harris and Trump, with only one or two percentage points separating them.
This includes states like Pennsylvania, which has a lot of electoral votes. These states are where the election will really be won or lost . Interestingly, when Biden dropped out, he was nearly five points behind Trump in these battleground areas, but now Harris is in a better position .
How Are Polls Made?
The polling averages discussed come from the website 538, which collects data from various polling companies to provide an overall picture. They focus on high-quality polls that are transparent about their methods .
Can We Trust the Polls?
As things stand, the polls indicate that Harris and Trump are very close in the battleground states, making it hard to predict who will win. Pollsters are aware of the mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020, when they underestimated Trump’s support.
They’re trying to improve their methods to better reflect the voting population. However, it’s still challenging to know who will actually vote on November 5 .
In conclusion, as the election day nears, the polls will continue to shift, and both candidates will be working hard to win over voters. With the potential for history to be made, it’s an exciting time in American politics .
Credit : BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo