On November 5, voters in the U.S. will choose their next president. Initially, it was expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election, but things changed in July when President Joe Biden stepped down and backed Vice President Kamala Harris.
Now, the main question is whether America will elect its first woman president or give Donald Trump a second term. As Election Day nears, we’ll keep an eye on the polls and see how the campaign influences the race for the White House.
Who is Leading in National Polls?
Since joining the race at the end of July, Harris has had a slight lead over Trump in national polls. She experienced a boost in popularity in the early weeks of her campaign, with a lead of nearly four percentage points by late August. However, since early September, her numbers have stabilized, even after their only debate on September 10, which nearly 70 million people watched.
While national polls can indicate a candidate’s popularity across the country, they don’t necessarily predict the election results accurately.
This is because the U.S. uses an electoral college system, where each state gets a certain number of votes based on its population. A total of 538 electoral votes are available, and a candidate needs 270 to win.
The U.S. has 50 states, but most typically vote for the same party, so only a few states—known as battleground or swing states—will decide the election.
Who is Winning in Swing State Polls?
Currently, polls show a tight race in seven key battleground states, with neither candidate having a clear advantage. Since Harris entered the race, there have been shifts in polling trends.
In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump has recently taken a slight lead, while Harris is ahead in Nevada.
However, in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states that leaned Democratic in the past—Harris has held a lead since August.
This is crucial because Biden won these states in 2020, and if Harris can reclaim them, she could secure the election.
When Biden withdrew from the race, he was behind Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these swing states, highlighting how the dynamics have shifted since Harris became the nominee.
How Are These Averages Created?
The polling averages mentioned come from 538, a site that analyzes polling data from various sources. They only include reliable polls that provide clear details about their methods and participant numbers.
Can We Trust the Polls?
Right now, polls indicate that Harris and Trump are very close in swing states, making it difficult to predict who will win.
Polls have previously underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and polling companies are working to improve their accuracy for this election.
Adjusting methods to reflect the actual voting population is challenging, and pollsters are still making educated guesses about voter turnout on November 5【BBC】.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo