Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has now edged past Republican Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a recent poll by the Des Moines Register and Mediacom.
Reuters reports that this marks a surprising change, as Trump won the state by a wide margin in both 2016 and 2020.
This new poll of 808 likely voters, surveyed from October 28 to 31, shows Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin, 47% to 44%.
However, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, the results remain close. Reuters explains that this shift is mainly due to support from women, especially older or independent female voters, who are now leaning toward Harris.
In previous elections, Trump comfortably won Iowa, carrying it by about 9 points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020.
This unexpected shift highlights a significant change in voter sentiment, particularly among women, Reuters notes.
The Trump campaign, however, is skeptical about the findings. Reuters adds that Trump’s team referred to the Des Moines Register poll as an “outlier” and pointed to a separate poll by Emerson College, which was also released on Saturday, showing Trump ahead by 10 points.
The Emerson poll, conducted from November 1 to 2, showed Trump doing well among men and independent voters, while Harris was popular with younger voters under 30.
According to Reuters, the overall race between Harris and Trump remains tight as the 2024 election day approaches, with early voting already happening.
Winning Iowa means securing six important Electoral College votes, part of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
As Reuters reports, both campaigns are focusing heavily on battleground states like Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the final days of their campaigns.